► Gold is back, a new bull market is emerging
► Increasing uncertainty about economic and political developments boosts the gold price
► Monetary stimulus ongoing: the BoJ and the ECB are creating the equivalent amount of the world’s entire annual gold production via their QE programs each month
► BREXIT: Uncertainty will negatively affect growth. Further monetary and fiscal stimulus to be expected to counter further disintegration of the Union
► Dollar strength upon US-recovery and normalization was major contributor to gold/commodity weakness of the last years
► The narrative of economic recovery is crumbling; US recession cannot be ruled out; faith in monetary policy measures declines
► Continued depreciation of the US dollar and strength in commodities may lead to higher inflation, or maybe stagflation
► The persisting low interest rate environment is leading to a revival in interest in gold investments on the part of institutional investors
► In addition to gold, this generally means a positive environment for inflation-sensitive assets like silver and mining stocks
► Incrementum confirms its long-term price target of USD 2,300 for June 2018
The report can be downloaded here:
In Gold we Trust – Extended version (160 pages) – English
In Gold we Trust – Compact version (20 pages) – English
In 12 chapters the fund managers of the independent investment boutique Incrementum AG, Ronald-Peter Stöferle and Mark Valek, analyze the state of the international financial architecture and its interaction with the gold price. For many years the authors have taken a critical position on permanent monetary interventions and their consequences. Their stance is contrary to the prevailing opinion in the markets according to which the global economy has been successfully nursed to a path of recovery by Neo-Keynesian economic policy, which will be cut back sooner or later. Instead Stöferle and Valek claim that the economic growth of recent years is artificial and fragile, while the current monetary system depends on permanent inflation. In the report they examine measures such as negative interest rates and helicopter money, that are likely to become increasingly relevant in the future, and discuss their impact on gold.
The essential conclusion of the extensive gold study is: Gold is back! After years of falling price inflation rates, of a strong US dollar and market participants that lulled themselves into a false sense of security, the trend of inflation has reversed and first doubts regarding the narrative of the economic recovery have arisen. During the past 12 months uncertainty has found expression twice in significant stock market upheaval. In the course of the market meltdown in the beginning of this year the gold price displayed substantial momentum and had its strongest first quarter ever in USD terms.
About the “In Gold we Trust” report:
Ronald-Peter Stoeferle has written the ‘In Gold we Trust’ study for 10 consecutive years. For 3 years it has been co-authored by his partner Mark Valek. It provides a “holistic“ assessment of the gold sector and the most important factors influencing it, including real interest rates, opportunity costs, debt, central bank policy etc.
The authors are proud that the following highly renowned companies are “Premium Partners” of the report: Philoro EDELMETALLE GmbH, Münze Österreich AG, Endeavour SilverCorp., Bullion Capital Ltd., Global Gold Inc., ÖGUSSA GmbH and Tocqueville Asset Management L.P.