The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter (October-December) Q3 of 2012-13, both at constant (2004-05) and current prices, alongwith the corresponding quarterly estimates of Expenditure components of the GDP. The details of the estimates are presented below.
I ESTIMATES OF GDP BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
(a) At constant (2004-05) prices
2. Quarterly GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices for Q3 of 2012-13 is estimated at Rs. 14,11,594crore, as against Rs. 13,51,252 crore in Q3 of 2011-12, showing a growth rate of 4.5 per cent over the corresponding quarter of previous year. Quarterly estimates and growth rates of 2011-12 have undergone revision on account of revision in annual estimates of 2010-11 and 2011-12. The revision in annual estimate of 2010-11 is mainly on account of using ASI data for 2010-11 and the new series of IIP for 2011-12 in the manufacturing sector. These changes have also resulted in changes in estimates of ‘trade, hotels and restaurants’ sector.
3. The economic activities which registered significant growth in Q3 of 2012-13 over Q3 of 2011-12 are, ‘financing, insurance, real estate and business services’ at 7.9 per cent, ‘construction’ at 5.8 percent, ‘community, social & personal services’ at 5.4 per cent, ‘trade, hotels, transport and communication’ at 5.1 per cent and ‘electricity, gas & water supply’ at 4.5 per cent. The growth rate in ‘agriculture, forestry & fishing’, ‘mining and quarrying’ and ‘manufacturing’ is estimated at 1.1 per cent, (-) 1.4 per cent and 2.5 per cent, respectively in this period.
4. According to the second advance estimates of production of crops released on 8.2.2013 by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC), which has been used in compiling the estimate of GDP from agriculture in Q3 of 2012-13, the production of coarse cereals and pulses during the Kharif season of 2012-13 is estimated to have declined by 4.8 per cent and 9.3 per cent respectively over the corresponding season in the previous agriculture year. Among the commercial crops, the production of oilseeds is estimated to have declined by 5.9 per cent during the Kharif season of 2012-13, while the production of sugarcane and cotton is expected to decline by 7.3 per cent and 4.0 per cent, respectively, during the agriculture year 2012-13. However, horticulture crops, livestock products are expected to grow at 3.5 percent and 5.1 percent respectively.
5. According to the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity, registered growth rates of (-) 3.2 per cent, 2.6 per cent and 4.4 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2012-13, as compared to the growth rates of (-) 4.2 per cent, 1.1 per cent and 9.6 per cent in these sectors in Q3 of 2011-12. In the mining sector, production of coal and crude oil registered growth rates of 1.5 per cent and 0.4 per cent in Q3 of 2012-13, as against the growth rates of 1.1 per cent and (-) 4.1 per cent in Q3 of 2011-12. The key indicators of construction sector, namely, cement and finished steel production registered growth rates of 2.7 per cent and 5.7 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2012-13.
6. Among the services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometers and passenger kilometers have shown growth rates of 0.1 per cent and 3.1 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2012-13, as against the growth rates of 5.3 per cent and 5.6 per cent, in the corresponding period of previous year. In the transport and communication sectors, the sale of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major ports, cargo handled by the civil aviation and passengers handled by the civil aviation registered growth rates of (-) 4.7 per cent, (-) 2.7 per cent, (-) 5.0 per cent and (-)5.9 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2012-13 over Q3 of 2011-12. The key indicators of banking, namely, aggregate bank deposits and bank credits have shown growth rates of 11.1 per cent and 15.2 per cent, respectively during April-December, 2012-13 over the corresponding period in 2011-12.
(b) At current prices
7. GDP at factor cost at current prices in Q3 of 2012-13, is estimated at Rs. 24,63, 775 crore, as against Rs. 21,91,132 crore in Q3, 2011-12, showing an increase of 12.4 per cent.
8. The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups food articles, non-food articles, fish, minerals, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities, has risen by 8.9 per cent, 12.9 per cent, 15.1 per cent, 6.6 per cent, 5.5 per cent, 13.2 per cent and 7.3 per cent, respectively during Q3 of 2012-13, over Q3 of 2011-12. The consumer price index for industrial workers (CPI-IW) has shown a rise of 10.1 per cent during Q3 of 2012-13 over Q3 of 2011-12.
II ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES ON GDP
9. The components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices. The aggregates presented in the following paragraphs, therefore, are in terms of market prices.
Private Final Consumption Expenditure
10. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs.15,56,374 crore in Q3 of 2012-13 as against Rs. 13,71,972 crore in Q3 of 2011-12. At constant (2004-05) prices, the PFCE is estimated at Rs. 9,29,839 crore in Q3 of 2012-13 as against Rs. 8,88,613 crore in Q3 of 2011-12. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q3 of 2012-13 are estimated at 59.1 per cent and 61.7 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 58.5 per cent and 61.4 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2011-12.
Government Final Consumption Expenditure
11. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 332777 crore in Q3 of 2012-13 as against Rs. 298362 crore in Q3 of 2011-12. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCE is estimated at Rs. 1,81,803 crore in Q3 of 2012-13 as against Rs. 1,78,362 crore in Q3 of 2011-12. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q3 of 2012-13 are estimated at 12.6 per cent and 12.1 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 12.7 per cent and 12.3 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2011-12.
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
12. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 7,55,466 crore in Q3 of 2012-13 as against Rs. 6,75,030 crore in Q3 of 2011-12. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCF is estimated at Rs. 4,88,580 crore in Q3 of 2012-13 as against Rs. 4,60,717 crore in Q3 of 2011-12. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q3 of 2012-13 are estimated at 28.7 per cent and 32.4 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 28.8 per cent and 31.8 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2011-12.
13. Estimates of GDP at factor cost by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP at market prices for Q3 and April-December, 2010-11, 2011-12 and 2012-13 at constant (2004-05) and current prices, are given in Statements 1 to 8.